New Normal

 

       New Normal vs. Old Normal

 

Many will be tempted to wait and see. They won’t make changes until they’re certain the secure jobs, steady pay raises, and pensions of their parents and grandparents won’t be coming back. Nothing unusual about that, it’s simply Human Nature.

After all, switching from a debt to an equity strategy will take some time and effort. Most had organized their affairs to make mortgage payments until age 65-70. Shifting to age 50-55 is going to take some reorganization.

In addition to time, it’s also going to take a change in beliefs. Beliefs are more powerful than facts, “behavorial economics.” Before facts can become beliefs, it’s important to understand why the Old Normal won’t be returning. Anything is possible, of course, but the odds are against it


Headwinds
It’s not just the Pandemic Recession of 2020 that argues against the return of the Old Normal. There were strong headwinds or trends against it for some time. Previously, most were seen as individual problems. Now, they can be seen as part of a bigger whole.

The following is a summary of three prominent reasons. (Click on link for further elaboration):

 

Adverse Environment:
Mother Nature is striking back! She’s producing drug-resistant bacteria and viruses that are taking us back to an earlier time. Perhaps the corona pandemic won’t be repeated, but now that she’s jumped from animal to human it’s more likely that it’ll happen again. Whether it’s stopped before it becomes another pandemic is the question.

Severe weather is causing an increasing number of “natural disasters.” At the rate global warming is rising, they’re beginning to threaten our way of life, where people can live, and even the food supply

Disease and weather aren’t the only environmental factors in the modern life. Modern man relies on technology as much, and sometimes more for certain functions. Unfortunately, there are bad actors who can turn it against individuals and the nation alike. They already have and will continue to do so. Question is whether they’ll remain a pest or disable the infrastructure of modern life.

 

Philosophy:
“Everyone is better off when working people and middle class are better off” is no longer the prevailing philosophy. There’s always been a large group who never believed that life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness was an unalienable right, but a privilege that must be earned – American Tories.

The Tories go in and out of influence. When in, the prospects of working people and middle class go down. They’re currently in, so corporate profits are not being shared with employees and the community. Return to Investors has priority, so factories are moved offshore. Unless there’s a jolt to the economy, politics, culture, and society, the Tories will continue to hold sway.

 

Fragile Industries:
“Everything that floats are not boats.” When the economy is awash in cheap money, the financial statements of many industries look good. However, if there’s a jolt to the economy, many will quickly sink.

Fracking Industry has never made a profit from opertations. Corporations have $10 trillion in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) but most of the money went into pockets, not operations. There’s once again a lot of hot air in Residential Real Estate prices. The air will go out of the market soon as interest rates start to return to traditional levels.

Not only are major industries fragile but they’re not keeping up with the technologies of the future, either. America used to be a leader in emerging technologies, but the federal government isn’t investing in R&D the way it once did. Thus, we’re falling behind.

 

Odds Against
There are additional things going against a return of the Old Normal, which can be found in many other publications.

Considering these three alone should be evidence enough that there’s no quick fix; no magic wand to restore things to the way they were for the parents and grandparents of Millennials. The Pandemic Recession of 2020 is the final straw.

Even though the facts argue strongly against it, people rarely act on facts alone. What they believe is more powerful. It’s only natural that Millennials will hesitate until they believe their future security and possibility of a comfortable retirement depends on the equity strategy. And that liberating 15 years of career to invest in themselves, via the Nest Egg Strategy, is key.

 

A Last Word …
Making it difficult to believe the Old Normal won’t be returing in the forseeable future is “conventional wisdom.” It still promotes old rules-of-thumb, which worked when the debt strategy still worked. It pretends not to know the game has changed.

The real estate industry is still vested in the debt strategy, their profits and commissions depend on it. Allied industries, such as financial advisors, tax accountants, mortgage brokers, money magazines, and others just go along, not wanting to upset the apple cart. Even parents will promote the old rules-of-thumb.

Boil it down and conventional wisdom will advise Millennials to get the biggest mortgage, smallest monthly payment, and the longest repayment period. It worked all these years, they don’t understand why won’t it work now!

They simply haven’t put 2 + 2 together. They acknowledge the increasing conflict with Mother Nature, stagnant wages, and the fraility of major industries but somehow don’t realize it means that secure jobs, steady pay raises, and pensions aren’t coming back any time soon.

That’s why conventional wisdom continues to make “Yeah, But…” arguments against the equity strategy. You can make up your own mind in the Yeah, But… page in the Retirement Puzzle section.

 

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